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Revenue from contract manufacturing of chips will set a new record in 2021 amid capacity shortages
According to the latest estimates from analysts from TrendForce, in 2021, global revenues from contract manufacturing of chips will reach $ 84.6 billion, 23.7% more than in 2021 – this is a record growth in the last 10 years. What are the industry forecasts for 2021?
The successes of 2021 were achieved against a backdrop of several events. This is the aggressive build-up of stocks by OEMs in the first half of the year; and the transfer of employees by companies to work from home; and distance learning. On the other hand, in the second half of the year, US sanctions influenced a sharp increase in demand from Huawei, as well as the transition of users to 5G smartphones and the construction of new generation base stations.
TrendForce analysts predict three key trends for 2021. First, pandemic-driven demand for networking products and work-from-home solutions will continue to some extent. Second, the trade war between China and the United States will remain unresolved. Finally, the global economy will recover in 2021 after a downturn in 2021. At the same time, demand for components is likely to increase not only due to the projected growth of 2-9% of the markets for smartphones, servers, laptops, TVs and cars next year, but also due to the further deployment of next generation networks, including 5G and Wi-Fi 6. Thus, in 2021, the contract manufacturing industry will reach a new record in revenue, an increase of 6% compared to 2021.
Today, TSMC’s 5nm capacity utilization is around 90% as US sanctions bar Huawei subsidiary HiSilicon from ordering wafers, and Apple orders cannot fully compensate for HiSilicon’s absence. But as for TSMC 7nm and Samsung 7 / 5nm, these processes are in great demand from AMD, MediaTek, NVIDIA and Qualcomm, and capacity utilization remains almost 100 percent.
TSMC and Samsung are set to actively expand their 5nm capacities in the second half of 2021 due to strong demand for components from customers in the HPC sector. TrendForce expects cutting-edge manufacturing capacity will again be in acute shortage in 2022 due to the rapid growth of the HPC market and orders from Intel – the company, according to analysts, will print more chips on the side.
China’s SMIC, which has been heavily sanctioned by the US, will be able to maintain normal production for another six months, given the stock of semiconductor materials. However, if the sanctions continue in the second half of 2021, then production may stop, so even its Chinese clients will have to look for other contractors. In this case, the situation with the proposal on the world market for contract manufacturing of chips will become even more tense than it is now.