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RAM will start to rise in price in the first quarter of 2021. The biggest rise in the price of GDDR6
TrendForce analysts found that “the DRAM market is showing a healthier and more balanced supply / demand ratio than the NAND market.”. Translated into ordinary language, this means that the period of overproduction and price reductions for DRAM memory will soon end and memory will begin to rise in price. It will happen very soon – in the first quarter of the new year. Maybe someone should hurry up with the upgrade.
DRAMeXchange DRAM and NAND Marketplace, maintained by TrendForce analysts, has a firm grip on the pulse of the market. Currently, TrendForce reports, the DRAM market is experiencing the following split: PC memory 13%, server memory 34%, mobile memory 40%, graphics 5%, and specialty / consumer 8%. In general, the trends are such that device manufacturers are making and will be making stocks of memory in the first quarter, which keeps prices from falling and may even push them up for a number of reasons.
Prices for memory for laptops and desktops in the first quarter of 2021 will stop declining and will be about the same as at the end of this year. On the one hand, high demand for laptops during the coronavirus pandemic will keep prices from falling. On the other hand, memory manufacturers are transferring a significant part of their capacities to the production of memory for smartphones (mobile) and to other purposes (for example, the production of image sensors). Also during this period, holidays and shorter working days will have their say, so that in general there will be a balance between supply and demand.
By the way, due to the recent incident of a fire at one of the Taiwanese factories of Micron, analysts revised their forecast for price dynamics towards a likely slight increase in the first quarter instead of “will remain unchanged.”.
Server memory will also stop declining in price later this year and promises to rise in price by up to 5% in the first quarter. Usually the demand for server memory during this period is extremely weak, but now the situation is slightly different. Server manufacturers have not stocked memory for a long time, and fears of a sharp increase in prices in the future may push them to start making purchases of memory in the first quarter. Meanwhile, the supply will decline. Above, we noted that memory manufacturers are transferring part of their capacities to the production of mobile memory. As a result, in the first quarter of 2021 server memory promises to rise in price.
The selling price of memory for smartphones promises to remain stable until the end of the first quarter. Chip makers will ramp up production of this memory, and smartphone makers will increase their stockpiling intensity. In addition, the smartphone market is not expected to drop as much in the first quarter of 2021 as in previous years in the winter season. Typically, the market fell by 10%, while in 2021 a decline in quarterly comparison is expected at 6%.
Projected dynamics of prices for RAM in the first quarter of 2021. Image source: TrendForce
The top three drivers for the rise in graphics memory prices in the first quarter of 2021 will be new graphics cards, game consoles and ASIC blocks for miners. Most of all, GDDR6 memory will rise in price – up to 10%. This will also be influenced by a reduction in the production of GDDR chips, the production capacity of which is being transferred to the production of mobile memory.
As for the memory for consumer electronics and other special ones, it will grow by up to 8% against the background of growing demand for televisions, set-top boxes and other electronics. Also, SK Hynix and Samsung are discontinuing DDR3 memory, which is used in similar products. In general, in the first quarter, the average selling price of memory will remain unchanged, but its growth is expected in certain areas of use.